1st on Forex

Pound Under Pressure - Euro on the Rise

As the Dollar Bides Its Time

It has been a rather boring week of headlines and news announcements compared to the volatility of the past few weeks.

Focusing on the US Dollar - It could be argued that intervention is at work propping up the Greenback for the past two weeks. Active traders have witnessed an amazing pause in the laws of gravity as the Dollar has actually strengthened in the face of negative forces, most notably after the Fed cut interest rates on March 18. Others may call it consolidation... But the Dollar can only hold on for so long - paused against expectations of further rates cuts by Bernanke. The EMU has expressed several times this past week that their main concern is with inflation and feel that growth will continue as demand continues from areas other than the US.

Pound Losing It's Sterling?

The Above Chart Shows a Classic Head and Shoulders patter on a 30 minute chart that would have netted savvy Technical Traders with over 130 pips!

Euro on the Rise!

The Chart Above Shows the Euro Strengthening against the Pound

Jerry Furst is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), Tune into his broadcasts weekly on FX Street with "1stonForex the Week Ahead". He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 Minute Consultation

Thee Calm Before........ The Fed (and After?)

More Volatility Ahead?

Markets are in a state of shock Tuesday mourning awaiting the 2:15pm Eastern time US interest rate announcement. Sunday's slaughter of Bear Stearns has evaporated  as it appears to me that Intervention is at work around the globe to avoid systemic panic. This is is a good thing - I think.... Ben Bernanke and his advisors (who ever they are) have done a magnificent job of keeping the markets orderly. As of this writing the DOW is up over 250 at 12,222 points and the S&P 500 is up over 30 points at 1308. Bravo Ben!

Euro Trending Nicely against the Dollar - Click Chart to Enlarge

2:15 - The Moment of Truth - Save or Kill the Dollar

At 2:15 the currency markets will show just how much (if any) intervention is at work - as the guessing game for Interest rate announcement ranges from a 1.25% cut to people like myself that say rates should hold steady at current rates. If they surprise by holding rates (please!)  then the dollar may rebound quickly and help to establish a sense of security in the financial markets  liquid. The Flip side - The Fed already cut .25% in a surprise move on Sunday - a smart move - so if they lower a full point - It might be look out below...! It might even signal a new Gold Rush.

You can tune in to my live Webinars every Monday at 7 am EST and Today I will be covering the FOMC interest rate announcement - live on FX Street - Free - Click here to register.

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), Tune into his broadcasts weekly on FX Street with "1stonForex the Week Ahead".  He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 Minute Consultation

To Save The Dollar - Fed Should Keep Rates Steady!

Shock and Awe - Bear Sterns Sold Out - at $2 Share Sunday Night!

The Fed is using Depression era measures! The Dollar is breaking down into free fall. All bets are off - current market conditions are in flux as the Asian Session opens. Breaking news announcements are likely to be coming from expected and unexpected corners. How many other banks - worldwide - are going to be gutted?

The Good News Is...The Worst is Probably at Hand!

Smell the Fear....The above paragraph - as true and as panicked as it sounds signals that  the capitulation days that are necessary to get past the worst - is at hand. However, it reminds me of living through several hurricanes recently in south Florida. Despite the fact that you know a dangerous storm is bearing down on a path headed straight for you -  The best you can do is take cover and pray. The waiting is the hardest part, it can seem to never end. Surveying the damage comes later - your main concern is survival. However, the landscape that was once familiar may no longer exist - Just like Bear Stearns.

Rate Cuts are Not the Answer - Save the Dollar NOW

Although Ben Bernanke has stated that the FOMC watches the Fed Funds Futures Rates - It's about time for the chairman to flex his muscle and pause the rate cuts to save not only the US Dollar - but the world economic system. The Fed chief might find some new respect too...

Lower the rates more than .25% and the Dollar will likely free fall. If it was up to me..... I would hold the rates steady!

Saving the Big Banks - Let the Little Ones Disappear?

The front page of Investors Business Daily Saturday stated," the Federal Reserve made clear that some banks are simply too big to fail." So wrote Jed Graham. The problem I have with this is that there has been zero oversight of the mergers and acquisitions of financial institutions - or any business for that fact - What happened to anti-trust law?. Correct me if I am wrong - but JP Morgan now has the Bank of New York, Chase, Mellon, and how many other entities under it's roof. I thought the idea is to have risk spread around - not consolidated. Now they are handed Bear Stearns for a few million dollars? What happens if JP Morgan ends up in trouble?

Which Bank and how many - individuals - are next?

Two weeks ago Congress asked Bernanke about what to do about massive credit card debt being held by individuals with rates adjusting to loan shark levels! Ben's response was that people need to know what they are buying.... Not good enough Ben - Your ignoring the warning - just like when Congress tried to warn you and Greenspan over two years ago that the housing market was getting overdone with improper lending.

I am amazed that the US can spend Billions a month in Iraq - but let American institutions and individuals get crushed. 

 

Yen Rally's as I Anticipated Thursday - Now What?

Pound Craters agaist the Yen - We have seen this before

As of this typing at 23:30 Eastern time March 16 the GBP-JPY has traded below 194, down from 200 at the sessions open only a few hours ago. The chart above going back to 1986 shows several times when the Pound has slid quite fast against the Yen - Are we there again?

Tune in to my live Webinars every Monday at 7 am EST and Tuesday I will be covering the FOMC interest rate announcement - live on FX Street - Free - Click here to register. 

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), Tune into his broadcasts weekly on FX Street with "1stonForex the Week Ahead".  He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 Minute Consultation with Jerry

Where Does It End? Yen To Rally?

Duck and Cover- Dollars Falling 

Why do I get the feeling Imelda Markus's shoe collection is about to drop...

So the Fed tried to prop up the dollar with $200 Billion - Nice try - it lasted for a few Hours... Gold hit $1,000 an ounce and Oil hit $111 a barrel.... Bush says the Dollar is adjusting....Carlyle Capital Collapses... and Hank Paulson is asking financial institutions to cut dividends to preserve capital....

Calls for Emergency G7 Intervention - Not So Fast....

During a press conference today, the US Treasury Secretary stated once again a strong Dollar policy - but when asked to explain -  he was at a loss for words. The call for intervention by the G7 is going out.... Well - the buzz is that the Bank of Japan is fighting the call to intervene to prop up the Dollar, citing the market is too large and intervention might fail. Leaving Trichet with pressure to lower rates.

FOMC Meeting Next Week - Rate Cut In Question

Past rate cuts have had a temporary saving effect on the US equity markets - but the Fed is finally feeling the heat of the harsh reality that it's just too painful for the Dollar. Expectations for next week by most pundits are expecting a .75% rate cut - and .50% at least at the March 18 FOMC meeting.  My guess is that the Fed will surprise by leaving rates steady....

Yen to Continue Rally? Or is Pattern Complete

Back on January 8,  I posted the Weekly chart of the Pound-Yen at around 215 with a very nice Head and Shoulder pattern breaking the neck line and in play. it was a text book looking example....

Above - January 8 - Post with Head and Shoulder on Weekly Chart in Play

Below - March 13 - Pattern now completing as we approach the 203 range.

Stopping the Bleeding - At What Cost - Arm - Leg?

The question now is will this level become support? Will the Yen, a Proxy for the Asian region continue to Rally? Will Intervention Be Used and If So - Will It Stop the Dollars Slide? - My Guess is the Plunge Protection Team will apply a tourniquet and stop the bleeding - but an arm or a leg may need to come off....

Jerry Furst is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), he is also a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 Minute Consultation

Interesting Week Unfolds – Dollar Stinks and Sinks Down Under

Read my post of January 8 – As at that time two months ago we were awaiting Interest rate announcements from across the pond. Since then the UK has lowered rates a .25% to 5.25% and Trichet and the ECB has held rates steady at 4.0% - But the key point here is that at that time – it became apparent to me that despite the words coming out of US Treasury Secretary Paulson’s mouth –  well to put it bluntly - nah..... I'll be nice... He's got such bags under his eyes.....I think he should switch jobs with Condolesa Rice - I think she sleeps better at night.... and eats better too....

The FOMC’s actions were poised to “Damn the Dollar”.    Is what I stated back then and Since then the damage to the US Dollar has been nothing short of "damning". Ben Stein tonight on the Glenn Beck Show said, “There is no End to the Fall of the Dollar” Well….I basically said that two months ago…. the difference is that now Ben Bernanke has recently publicly distanced himself from his mentor -  Secretary Paulson's policy of a "Strong US Dollar" policy. Stating that his main concern is economic growth. Really, I though he said it was guarding against inflation - at least that was his line back in August. How stupid do they think we are? Or maybe they just  figure that most people could care less about the "facts".  Unfortunately - It is not Ben Bernanke's fault - and to his credit - He's holding up well in the "hot seat" Anyone else want his job?

Sometimes I wish I was wrong but my next post on January 22 called that the US was in recession (while most pundits were still debating it) and I raised the notion that a “Depression” is possible. Well with Oil spiking past $105 and Gold heading for $1,000 an ounce – the average person on any street in most any country is likely to be oblivious to what is coming. For new readers - I suggest you scroll back and read my past ramblings....If you dare....

Non Farm Payroll - Is it real?

OK – well – now that the UK and ECB has left interest rates alone today – all eyes are turned to the Non Farm Payroll report due out in a few hours – as if that really reflects the “facts”.  If the government wanted to report the "facts" it would be easy to calculate all "legal" workers and residents in the US with Social Security numbers that are either paying into payroll taxes - vs. retired - or not paying into "the system".  But that might make sense. Ohhhh... and Let's see what the revisions are....  I believe they basically just count how many people are collecting unemployment checks. ... Anyway.....

So as the Greenback Sinks – let’s look Downunder at the AUD-USD

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), Tune into his broadcasts weekly on FX Street with "1stonForex the Week Ahead".  He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 Minute Consultation with Jerry