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FOMC - After GDP and ADP - Then NFP on Fri

A New Rant - For The Day!

I Have a Solution

Let the World Bank and the IMF forgive the United States Debt!

The Real FOMC Consensus Will Have to Wait for May 21st!

It appears as if the consensus is for a .25 cut from Bernanke and team this Wednesday afternoon. There are a few people echoing my pleas for the past few months that the Fed should pause - and maybe even raise rates. But the odds of that happening are pretty slim. No - the news being made today will actually have to wait until May 21st when the consensus that counts, "The Minutes" of the last two days Fed meetings are released.

A More Predictable Surprise Before the Fed Announcement?

The ADP report precursor for Friday's Non - Farm Payroll report is due out at 8:15 today - followed 15 minutes later by the US GDP report at 8:30. This GDP could be a shocker if it goes negative. The consensus for GDP growth is that the number will barely be positive and will likely be the worst GDP report in recent memory. If this does happen, it will make the Fed's job harder to decide which poison to dispense to the economy and cause more speculation ahead of the 2:15 interest rate announcement.

A Long Time Between Now and Next FOMC Meeting

The next scheduled FOMC meeting is not until June 25th! That's a long time in this current environment.... I'd bet an Amero or two that there may be a surprise between now and then that might cause a rate change between meetings - highlighting the

Dollar Dances as Core Prices Rise – Home Values Drop

So the Dollar is staging a rally and Showing Strength? Let's see the currencies are ticking wildly before the European Open.  The Euro-USD is currently ticking at 1.5578 and the Pound -Dollar is at 1.9634 - Oh Yes - Here is proof - We can take comfort in the dollar strength as it is still above parity against the Canadian Loonie! So in that respect - I agree the Dollar is in Rally Mode - Party on Garth!

"No Magic Wand To Wave" - W = Double Bottom...

President Bush was quoted today as saying that there is no magic wand to wave to bring the cost of oil down.....(I'll be nice)  How about a strong US Dollar George????  I mean Mr. President.... watching his Rose Garden press conference today was frightening - This man has no clue - Let's talk about batteries, and switch grass for a while - and Nuclear Energy as a solution in say.. 2013 - after the Mayan Calendar runs out....... (Have they ever figured out where they are going to store the nuclear waste yet?)  I'd be happier if they just tell us an asteroid the size of Montana - Not Hannah  was coming straight at us! (The distractions are crazy these days - can anyone find Obama - I mean Osama - For a few Billion Dollars - someone should be able to find him! The US wastes about  $12 Billion a Month "over there" - Please show me on What! -  or just get it Wright! )

The Interest Rates That Really Matter - Unaffected

To me - these interest rate decreases the Fed has implemented are doing nothing to help the average consumer. The US consumer that has been encouraged to support the world by spending for the past 40 years. That's right - the IRS check is in the mail - or directly deposited - So now drive to Disney World and spend some money! We will have your job back in a few decades. ( I love trading!)

No - Banks are raising not lowering interest rates on the average person that needs relief - Credit card users are being charged over 20% to 30%! That's criminal!

Buy The Amero - Now at IPO prices!

But $105 Dollar Oil looks great doesn't it! - after hitting $120!!! and $4.00 gasoline will soon look like a bargain after it spikes over $5.00 - and NAFTA is great for America - I agree - South America.....

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Tune in to my Live Webinars every Monday at 12 Noon Eastern US Time - 16:00 GMT for the "1st on Forex - The Week Ahead" - Also - today I will be broadcasting live coverage of the ADP - GDP and FOMC announcements here on FX Street - Click Here to Register for your Free Password and Admission to the Show!

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 or 30 Minute Consultation.

Dollar Rallies from Oversold - Finally!

Relief Rally - or Short Squeeze?

As many traders were anticipating the Euro to test the 1.60 mark, the US Dollar had other plans. Reasons for the Dollar rally run rampant as analysts needing a story speculated that Citigroup's $5.1 Billion Loss ($16 Billion in Trading Write Downs), and cutting another 9,000 jobs was a relief rally... Go Figure!

Break Out - Fake Out

 

The charts (Click to Enlarge) show how large and violent Friday's European session was. The above Ascending Triangle break proved to be a fake out.

The Euro's Upward Trend Channel (shown below) that begins back on March 12 was marked from top to bottom in one 4 Hour bar. The Euro bounced off support around 1.5700 before the New York session began and closed the day and the week in the middle of the channel near the 38.2 retracement level of 1.5817.

Euro Dives Over 240 Pips

An "orderly decay" of the US Dollar on the long term charts sounds reasonable to assume.

According to the CFTC's COT report - Speculators are moving away from the Euro and into the Yen. Speculators or not. It should be noted that the Dollars rally was not contained to the Euro as all the charts were showing extreme volatility. It should also be noted that the British Pound Sterling bounced up against the Dollar closing at 1.9973 and tapping the 2.00 mark.

 

Gold and Silver Index: Up Channel - Wedge - 50% Retracement 

 

You are Invited to attend "1st on Forex-Week Ahead Webinar" Free

I expect the volatility on the currencies will continue as a battle over some very strong chart patterns need to be played out to the north or south. Tune in to my Weekly Webinar - "1st on Forex - The Week Ahead" every Monday morning at 7am EDT - 11:00 GMT - on FX Street - Click Here to Register - and Attend Free.

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 Minute Consultation.

Sterling Strugling as Euro Poised For New Highs

G7 - Gee Whiz - Now What?

Last Weekends G7 Meeting left observers with nice words of cooperation - but as the respective leaders headed their separate ways to the four corners of the globe - the currencies seem to be on their own paths now as well.

The G7 is calling for China to increase the flexibility of it's currency - But it seems to me that all that will do is cause the price of their exports to go up - causing more inflation for consumers worldwide!  Click Here for a Link to the G-7 Statement

 

Euro Poised for 1.60 Range?

On Wednesday the Euro zone reported higher than expected inflation - dragging down hopes that Trichet might lower interest rates to help prop up the US Dollar.  

 

Inverse Head and Shoulders on 30 Min Chart

Click to Enlarge

Ascending Triangle on Daily Chart

Click to Enlarge

 

Tracking Errors?

Although the UK came out with better than expected CPI numbers the Pound Sterling seems to almost track the US Dollar down more than it's traditional tracking of the Euro - currently on it's way up.

 

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 Minute Consultation. Tune into his broadcasts weekly on FX Street with "1stonForex the Week Ahead". 

G7 Meets - Interest Rates - UN-Interesting

G7

This Weekend the Group of 7 – Finance ministers meet in Washington and the US Dollar and FX rates appears to be high on the list of topics.

European Central Bank President Trichet has indicated that rates will stay stable as the ECB walks a tightrope of being concerned about inflation, while extremely concerned about market turmoil. He was quoted Thursday as saying, “I deplore the excessive volatility in exchange rates.”

GBP-USD

The currency markets were little changed as there were no surprises to the markets as the Bank of England cut interest rates .25% to 5.00%

 

Euro – USD

The European Central Bank left rates steady at 4.00% as expected. The currency markets had little reaction as continued intervention seems to be at work.

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), Tune into his broadcasts weekly on FX Street with "1stonForex the Week Ahead".  He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 Minute Consultation