August 20, 2008

Poor PPI and Dismal Housing Start Data Provides Dollar Retracement

US inflation data is being quoted as the worst since 1981. The US Housing market continues to show severe contraction. This may actually be a good sign that we are approaching the "bottom of the cycle. It is refreshing when government officials have stepped away from their "rose colored windows" and have begun stating the "true" inflation numbers - even if it means they will need to pay higher Cost of Living Allowances, otherwise known as "COLAS" .

Yesterday's Blog Post - Today's News

Yesterday - I posted a few charts and did a video detailing some signs that we were due for a retracement - and that's what we got the start of yesterday - click on the charts and video from today and yesterday.

2008-Aug-19-CHF-Triangle-Completed

Triangle Pattern Completes (above) and then Dollar Retraces  -  See Yesterday's Post

2008-Aug-19--Euro-Bounces Off-Support

Euro Bounces off of Horizontal and Trendline Support (Click on Charts to Enlarge)

 

Video Post Details the Charts Above and More!

 

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Posted by Jerry Furst at 12:01 AM | | Comments (0)

August 19, 2008

Dollar Rally Stalls After Massive Move

What Goes Down Must Go ..... ?

The Greenback has made a dramatic run, but without much of a retracement. The Daily charts show the picture quite clearly. If the past is a guide, you can see the dramatic run up in the Euro in February and March and then the pullback - if for no other reason than to respect the laws of gravity!

 

2008-Aug-18-CHF-Triangle-30-Min

Triangle in Play? Time for the Retracement?

2008-Aug-18--Euro-at-Support

Euro at Support on Weekly Chart

 

Video Post Details the Charts Above and More! 

 

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Posted by Jerry Furst at 12:04 AM | | Comments (0)

August 17, 2008

Week Ahead for August 17 - 22 Calendar

Below is a Consolidated Summary of Scheduled News Events that I am watching for the "Week Ahead" 

Note: All times are listed in US Eastern Time Zone and there are other scheduled events that I may not have listed.

Jerry's US Scheduled News and Event Watch for - August 17 -22

Date Time Scheduled Event
Sun 8-17 n/a n/a
Mon 8- 18 13:00 Housing Market Index - New Home Sales
Tue 8-19 8:30
8:55
10:00		 PPI- Producer Price Index and Housing Starts
Redbook - Chain Store Sales
State Street Investor Confidence INdex
Wed 8-20 7:00
10:35		 Mortgage Applications
EIA - Petroleum Status Report
Thu 8-21 8:30
10:00
10:35		 Weekly Jobless Claims
Phili Fed Survey and Leading Economic Indicators
EIA - Natural Gas Report
Fri 8-22 10:00 Bernanke Speaks at Jackson Hole

 

Jerry's International Scheduled News and Event Watch for August 17 - 22

Date Time FX Scheduled Event
Sun 8-17 19:01 GBP UK - Housing Price Index
Mon 8-18 8:30
18:45
21:30		 CAD
NZD
AUD		 Foreign Investments
PPI - Producer Price Index
RBA - Meeting Minutes
Tue 8-19 2:00
5:00
8:30
20:30		 EUR
EUR
CAD
AUD		 German PPI
German Economic Sentiment
Wholesale Sales
Combined Economic Indicators Index
Wed 8-20 2:00
4:30
6:00
8:30
19:50
21:30		 JPY
GBP
GBP
CAD
JPY
AUD		 BOJ - Monthly Report
MPC - Meeting Minutes
Industrial Trends Orders
Retail Sales and Leading Indicators
Trade Balance Report
RBA Monthly Commentary and New Car Sales
Thu 8-21 3:00
3:30
4:00
4:30
7:00
19:50		 EUR
EUR
EUR
GBP
CAD
JPY		 French Mfg and Services
German Mfg and Services
Euro Zone Mfg and Services
Retail Sales and Business Investment
CPI - Consumer Price Index
BOJ - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Fri 8-22 4:00
4:30
5:00		 EUR
GBP
EUR		 Current Account
GDP - Revised
New Industrial Orders

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Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

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Posted by Jerry Furst at 12:05 AM | | Comments (0)

Week Ahead for August 17 - 22 Calendar

Below is a Consolidated Summary of Scheduled News Events that I am watching for the "Week Ahead" 

Note: All times are listed in US Eastern Time Zone and there are other scheduled events that I may not have listed.

Jerry's US Scheduled News and Event Watch for - August 17 -22

Date Time Scheduled Event
Sun 8-17 n/a n/a
Mon 8- 18 13:00 Housing Market Index - New Home Sales
Tue 8-19 8:30
8:55
10:00		 PPI- Producer Price Index and Housing Starts
Redbook - Chain Store Sales
State Street Investor Confidence INdex
Wed 8-20 7:00
10:35		 Mortgage Applications
EIA - Petroleum Status Report
Thu 8-21 8:30
10:00
10:35		 Weekly Jobless Claims
Phili Fed Survey and Leading Economic Indicators
EIA - Natural Gas Report
Fri 8-22 10:00 Bernanke Speaks at Jackson Hole

 

Jerry's International Scheduled News and Event Watch for August 17 - 22

Date Time FX Scheduled Event
Sun 8-17 19:01 GBP UK - Housing Price Index
Mon 8-18 8:30
18:45
21:30		 CAD
NZD
AUD		 Foreign Investments
PPI - Producer Price Index
RBA - Meeting Minutes
Tue 8-19 2:00
5:00
8:30
20:30		 EUR
EUR
CAD
AUD		 German PPI
German Economic Sentiment
Wholesale Sales
Combined Economic Indicators Index
Wed 8-20 2:00
4:30
6:00
8:30
19:50
21:30		 JPY
GBP
GBP
CAD
JPY
AUD		 BOJ - Monthly Report
MPC - Meeting Minutes
Industrial Trends Orders
Retail Sales and Leading Indicators
Trade Balance Report
RBA Monthly Commentary and New Car Sales
Thu 8-21 3:00
3:30
4:00
4:30
7:00
19:50		 EUR
EUR
EUR
GBP
CAD
JPY		 French Mfg and Services
German Mfg and Services
Euro Zone Mfg and Services
Retail Sales and Business Investment
CPI - Consumer Price Index
BOJ - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Fri 8-22 4:00
4:30
5:00		 EUR
GBP
EUR		 Current Account
GDP - Revised
New Industrial Orders

***  Attend A Free Live Market Coverage and Analysis Webinar ***

Click Here to Register for this weeks "1st on Forex" The Week Ahead Webinar  - Every Monday at 12 Noon EDT -

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

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Posted by Jerry Furst at 12:05 AM | | Comments (0)

Week Ahead for August 17 - 22 Calendar

Below is a Consolidated Summary of Scheduled News Events that I am watching for the "Week Ahead" 

Note: All times are listed in US Eastern Time Zone and there are other scheduled events that I may not have listed.

Jerry's US Scheduled News and Event Watch for - August 17 -22

Date Time Scheduled Event
Sun 8-17 n/a n/a
Mon 8- 18 13:00 Housing Market Index - New Home Sales
Tue 8-19 8:30
8:55
10:00		 PPI- Producer Price Index and Housing Starts
Redbook - Chain Store Sales
State Street Investor Confidence INdex
Wed 8-20 7:00
10:35		 Mortgage Applications
EIA - Petroleum Status Report
Thu 8-21 8:30
10:00
10:35		 Weekly Jobless Claims
Phili Fed Survey and Leading Economic Indicators
EIA - Natural Gas Report
Fri 8-22 10:00 Bernanke Speaks at Jackson Hole

 

Jerry's International Scheduled News and Event Watch for August 17 - 22

Date Time FX Scheduled Event
Sun 8-17 19:01 GBP UK - Housing Price Index
Mon 8-18 8:30
18:45
21:30		 CAD
NZD
AUD		 Foreign Investments
PPI - Producer Price Index
RBA - Meeting Minutes
Tue 8-19 2:00
5:00
8:30
20:30		 EUR
EUR
CAD
AUD		 German PPI
German Economic Sentiment
Wholesale Sales
Combined Economic Indicators Index
Wed 8-20 2:00
4:30
6:00
8:30
19:50
21:30		 JPY
GBP
GBP
CAD
JPY
AUD		 BOJ - Monthly Report
MPC - Meeting Minutes
Industrial Trends Orders
Retail Sales and Leading Indicators
Trade Balance Report
RBA Monthly Commentary and New Car Sales
Thu 8-21 3:00
3:30
4:00
4:30
7:00
19:50		 EUR
EUR
EUR
GBP
CAD
JPY		 French Mfg and Services
German Mfg and Services
Euro Zone Mfg and Services
Retail Sales and Business Investment
CPI - Consumer Price Index
BOJ - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Fri 8-22 4:00
4:30
5:00		 EUR
GBP
EUR		 Current Account
GDP - Revised
New Industrial Orders

***  Attend A Free Live Market Coverage and Analysis Webinar ***

Click Here to Register for this weeks "1st on Forex" The Week Ahead Webinar  - Every Monday at 12 Noon EDT -

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

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Posted by Jerry Furst at 12:05 AM | | Comments (0)

August 15, 2008

Dollar Defies Bad News - Consumer Sentiment Friday

Did You Get The Memo?

Consumer Price Index and Jobless Claims came in with worse than expected numbers on Thursday, but the Euro and the other majors did not get the memo.

How Do You Think The Currencies Will React?

Friday will bring in Consumer Sentiment numbers that according to Econoday are expected to come in between 60 and 69 with a consensus of 62 - ... but more importantly - How will the currencies react to the last major news event scheduled for the week.

YouTube For You - Techincal Analysis for the Day Ahead

 

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Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

 

Posted by Jerry Furst at 11:41 PM | | Comments (0)

Dollar Defies Bad News - Consumer Sentiment Friday

Did You Get The Memo?

Consumer Price Index and Jobless Claims came in with worse than expected numbers on Thursday, but the Euro and the other majors did not get the memo.

How Do You Think The Currencies Will React?

Friday will bring in Consumer Sentiment numbers that according to Econoday are expected to come in between 60 and 69 with a consensus of 62 - ... but more importantly - How will the currencies react to the last major news event scheduled for the week.

YouTube For You - Techincal Analysis for the Day Ahead

 

*** Your Invitation For Free Live Market Coverage and Analysis Webinars ***

Click Here to Register for this weeks "1st on Forex" The Week Ahead Webinar  - Every Monday at 12 Noon EDT -

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

 

Posted by Jerry Furst at 11:41 PM | | Comments (0)

August 14, 2008

Video Response to Comment - Question: Will Pound Rebound?

Reader Comments

Hi, Do you expect any bounce in GBP above 1.90 again... or looking towards 1.80 levels this month

regards - krishna  - Posted by: krishna | August 13, 2008 at 05:53 PM

 

I Thought I Would do Something Different - A Video Response:

 

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Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

 

Posted by Jerry Furst at 10:41 PM | | Comments (0)

BOE Inflation Report Kicks Pound to the Curb

250 Pip Drop against Dollar

The Pound Sterling nose dived from 1.900 to 1.7500 in minutes as the BOE released a report that indicates lower interest rates may be coming soon. Currently the BOE is holding rates at 5% and has plenty of room to cut - just to gain parity to the ECB's rate.

2008-Aug-13-GBP-USD-250-pip-drop-BOE-Inflation-Report

GBP - USD 1 Minutes Chart 250 Pip Drop (click to enlarge) Dramatic example of Scheduled News Events effects on currencies.

Posted by Jerry Furst at 07:27 AM | | Comments (1)

Dollar Stalls vs Euro - Falls vs Yen

The US Dollar Rally took a rest on Tuesday even as good news for the Greenback came in the way of a better than expected Trade Balance report.

2008-Aug-12-EUR-USD-30-Min-650-Pip-Drop

Euro vs US Dollar - 30 Minute Chart above (click to enlarge) shows the 650 pip drop in the last four trading days, and the current consolidation.

Yen Rallies vs Dollar even with Weak GDP

Meanwhile, The US Dollar Fell in the Asian Session as Japan reported a 0.6% drop in GDP. This number was inline with expectations. But it is surprising to see the Greenback drop about 100 pips on the news.

2008-Aug-12-USD-JPY-Daily-At Support

US Dollar vs Yen Daily Chart Above and 30 Minute Chart Below Shows... 

shows the Yen is at a support level of convergence with horizontal trend line support, and rising trend channel support. It is interesting to look at the two charts of different time frames as the 30 minute chart highlights and brings into focus the support level.

2008-Aug-12-USD-JPY-60-Min-At Support

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Click Here to Register for this weeks "1st on Forex" The Week Ahead Webinar  - Every Monday at 12 Noon EDT -

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

 

Posted by Jerry Furst at 12:14 AM | | Comments (0)

Dollar Stalls vs Euro - Falls vs Yen

The US Dollar Rally took a rest on Tuesday even as good news for the Greenback came in the way of a better than expected Trade Balance report.

2008-Aug-12-EUR-USD-30-Min-650-Pip-Drop

Euro vs US Dollar - 30 Minute Chart above (click to enlarge) shows the 650 pip drop in the last four trading days, and the current consolidation.

Yen Rallies vs Dollar even with Weak GDP

Meanwhile, The US Dollar Fell in the Asian Session as Japan reported a 0.6% drop in GDP. This number was inline with expectations. But it is surprising to see the Greenback drop about 100 pips on the news.

2008-Aug-12-USD-JPY-Daily-At Support

US Dollar vs Yen Daily Chart Above and 30 Minute Chart Below Shows... 

shows the Yen is at a support level of convergence with horizontal trend line support, and rising trend channel support. It is interesting to look at the two charts of different time frames as the 30 minute chart highlights and brings into focus the support level.

2008-Aug-12-USD-JPY-60-Min-At Support

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Posted by Jerry Furst at 12:14 AM | | Comments (0)

August 12, 2008

No News Is Good News For Euro

As US Data is Scheduled

The Euro continued to give up ground on Monday against the US Dollar as did the Sterling, Swiss, and Aussie. The Yen, and Canadian Stayed stable.

Tuesday brings no scheduled news for the Euro zone worthy of mention, but the US calendar brings in International Trade reports in the morning and the US Treasury Budget later in the afternoon. This may give the currencies some time to retrace - time will tell.

Euro Inside Old Support Range

2008-Aug-12-Euro-USD-Daily-Old Consolidation range

August 12, 2008 - daily Chart  (Click to Enlarge)

The Euro has now fallen Through Support and is in familiar territory.

From Nov 2007 through March 2008 the Euro trended Sideways from 1.4300 - 1.500

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

 

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