August 20, 2008

Poor PPI and Dismal Housing Start Data Provides Dollar Retracement

US inflation data is being quoted as the worst since 1981. The US Housing market continues to show severe contraction. This may actually be a good sign that we are approaching the "bottom of the cycle. It is refreshing when government officials have stepped away from their "rose colored windows" and have begun stating the "true" inflation numbers - even if it means they will need to pay higher Cost of Living Allowances, otherwise known as "COLAS" .

Yesterday's Blog Post - Today's News

Yesterday - I posted a few charts and did a video detailing some signs that we were due for a retracement - and that's what we got the start of yesterday - click on the charts and video from today and yesterday.

2008-Aug-19-CHF-Triangle-Completed

Triangle Pattern Completes (above) and then Dollar Retraces  -  See Yesterday's Post

2008-Aug-19--Euro-Bounces Off-Support

Euro Bounces off of Horizontal and Trendline Support (Click on Charts to Enlarge)

 

Video Post Details the Charts Above and More!

 

***  Attend A Free Live Market Coverage and Analysis Webinar ***

Click Here to Register for this weeks "1st on Forex" The Week Ahead Webinar  - Every Monday at 12 Noon EDT -

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

 

Posted by Jerry Furst at 12:01 AM | | Comments (0)

August 19, 2008

Dollar Rally Stalls After Massive Move

What Goes Down Must Go ..... ?

The Greenback has made a dramatic run, but without much of a retracement. The Daily charts show the picture quite clearly. If the past is a guide, you can see the dramatic run up in the Euro in February and March and then the pullback - if for no other reason than to respect the laws of gravity!

 

2008-Aug-18-CHF-Triangle-30-Min

Triangle in Play? Time for the Retracement?

2008-Aug-18--Euro-at-Support

Euro at Support on Weekly Chart

 

Video Post Details the Charts Above and More! 

 

***  Attend A Free Live Market Coverage and Analysis Webinar ***

Click Here to Register for this weeks "1st on Forex" The Week Ahead Webinar  - Every Monday at 12 Noon EDT -

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

 

Posted by Jerry Furst at 12:04 AM | | Comments (0)

August 15, 2008

Dollar Defies Bad News - Consumer Sentiment Friday

Did You Get The Memo?

Consumer Price Index and Jobless Claims came in with worse than expected numbers on Thursday, but the Euro and the other majors did not get the memo.

How Do You Think The Currencies Will React?

Friday will bring in Consumer Sentiment numbers that according to Econoday are expected to come in between 60 and 69 with a consensus of 62 - ... but more importantly - How will the currencies react to the last major news event scheduled for the week.

YouTube For You - Techincal Analysis for the Day Ahead

 

*** Your Invitation For Free Live Market Coverage and Analysis Webinars ***

Click Here to Register for this weeks "1st on Forex" The Week Ahead Webinar  - Every Monday at 12 Noon EDT -

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

 

Posted by Jerry Furst at 11:41 PM | | Comments (0)

Dollar Defies Bad News - Consumer Sentiment Friday

Did You Get The Memo?

Consumer Price Index and Jobless Claims came in with worse than expected numbers on Thursday, but the Euro and the other majors did not get the memo.

How Do You Think The Currencies Will React?

Friday will bring in Consumer Sentiment numbers that according to Econoday are expected to come in between 60 and 69 with a consensus of 62 - ... but more importantly - How will the currencies react to the last major news event scheduled for the week.

YouTube For You - Techincal Analysis for the Day Ahead

 

*** Your Invitation For Free Live Market Coverage and Analysis Webinars ***

Click Here to Register for this weeks "1st on Forex" The Week Ahead Webinar  - Every Monday at 12 Noon EDT -

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

 

Posted by Jerry Furst at 11:41 PM | | Comments (0)

August 14, 2008

Video Response to Comment - Question: Will Pound Rebound?

Reader Comments

Hi, Do you expect any bounce in GBP above 1.90 again... or looking towards 1.80 levels this month

regards - krishna  - Posted by: krishna | August 13, 2008 at 05:53 PM

 

I Thought I Would do Something Different - A Video Response:

 

*** Your Invitation For Free Live Market Coverage and Analysis Webinars ***

Click Here to Register for this weeks "1st on Forex" The Week Ahead Webinar  - Every Monday at 12 Noon EDT -

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

 

Posted by Jerry Furst at 10:41 PM | | Comments (0)

BOE Inflation Report Kicks Pound to the Curb

250 Pip Drop against Dollar

The Pound Sterling nose dived from 1.900 to 1.7500 in minutes as the BOE released a report that indicates lower interest rates may be coming soon. Currently the BOE is holding rates at 5% and has plenty of room to cut - just to gain parity to the ECB's rate.

2008-Aug-13-GBP-USD-250-pip-drop-BOE-Inflation-Report

GBP - USD 1 Minutes Chart 250 Pip Drop (click to enlarge) Dramatic example of Scheduled News Events effects on currencies.

Posted by Jerry Furst at 07:27 AM | | Comments (1)

Dollar Stalls vs Euro - Falls vs Yen

The US Dollar Rally took a rest on Tuesday even as good news for the Greenback came in the way of a better than expected Trade Balance report.

2008-Aug-12-EUR-USD-30-Min-650-Pip-Drop

Euro vs US Dollar - 30 Minute Chart above (click to enlarge) shows the 650 pip drop in the last four trading days, and the current consolidation.

Yen Rallies vs Dollar even with Weak GDP

Meanwhile, The US Dollar Fell in the Asian Session as Japan reported a 0.6% drop in GDP. This number was inline with expectations. But it is surprising to see the Greenback drop about 100 pips on the news.

2008-Aug-12-USD-JPY-Daily-At Support

US Dollar vs Yen Daily Chart Above and 30 Minute Chart Below Shows... 

shows the Yen is at a support level of convergence with horizontal trend line support, and rising trend channel support. It is interesting to look at the two charts of different time frames as the 30 minute chart highlights and brings into focus the support level.

2008-Aug-12-USD-JPY-60-Min-At Support

*** Your Invitation For Free Live Market Coverage and Analysis Webinars ***

Click Here to Register for this weeks "1st on Forex" The Week Ahead Webinar  - Every Monday at 12 Noon EDT -

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

 

Posted by Jerry Furst at 12:14 AM | | Comments (0)

Dollar Stalls vs Euro - Falls vs Yen

The US Dollar Rally took a rest on Tuesday even as good news for the Greenback came in the way of a better than expected Trade Balance report.

2008-Aug-12-EUR-USD-30-Min-650-Pip-Drop

Euro vs US Dollar - 30 Minute Chart above (click to enlarge) shows the 650 pip drop in the last four trading days, and the current consolidation.

Yen Rallies vs Dollar even with Weak GDP

Meanwhile, The US Dollar Fell in the Asian Session as Japan reported a 0.6% drop in GDP. This number was inline with expectations. But it is surprising to see the Greenback drop about 100 pips on the news.

2008-Aug-12-USD-JPY-Daily-At Support

US Dollar vs Yen Daily Chart Above and 30 Minute Chart Below Shows... 

shows the Yen is at a support level of convergence with horizontal trend line support, and rising trend channel support. It is interesting to look at the two charts of different time frames as the 30 minute chart highlights and brings into focus the support level.

2008-Aug-12-USD-JPY-60-Min-At Support

*** Your Invitation For Free Live Market Coverage and Analysis Webinars ***

Click Here to Register for this weeks "1st on Forex" The Week Ahead Webinar  - Every Monday at 12 Noon EDT -

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

 

Posted by Jerry Furst at 12:14 AM | | Comments (0)

August 12, 2008

No News Is Good News For Euro

As US Data is Scheduled

The Euro continued to give up ground on Monday against the US Dollar as did the Sterling, Swiss, and Aussie. The Yen, and Canadian Stayed stable.

Tuesday brings no scheduled news for the Euro zone worthy of mention, but the US calendar brings in International Trade reports in the morning and the US Treasury Budget later in the afternoon. This may give the currencies some time to retrace - time will tell.

Euro Inside Old Support Range

2008-Aug-12-Euro-USD-Daily-Old Consolidation range

August 12, 2008 - daily Chart  (Click to Enlarge)

The Euro has now fallen Through Support and is in familiar territory.

From Nov 2007 through March 2008 the Euro trended Sideways from 1.4300 - 1.500

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

 

Posted by Jerry Furst at 12:22 AM | | Comments (0)

No News Is Good News For Euro

As US Data is Scheduled

The Euro continued to give up ground on Monday against the US Dollar as did the Sterling, Swiss, and Aussie. The Yen, and Canadian Stayed stable.

Tuesday brings no scheduled news for the Euro zone worthy of mention, but the US calendar brings in International Trade reports in the morning and the US Treasury Budget later in the afternoon. This may give the currencies some time to retrace - time will tell.

Euro Inside Old Support Range

2008-Aug-12-Euro-USD-Daily-Old Consolidation range

August 12, 2008 - daily Chart  (Click to Enlarge)

The Euro has now fallen Through Support and is in familiar territory.

From Nov 2007 through March 2008 the Euro trended Sideways from 1.4300 - 1.500

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

 

Posted by Jerry Furst at 12:22 AM | | Comments (0)

August 08, 2008

Euro Continues to Slide as Trichet Holds Rates

No Surprise on Interest Rates - So What's the Panic About?

Trichet has suddenly seen the light of the economic train bearing down on him with the horn blaring a siren of economic weakness. Does he now feel that  Bernanke and the FOMC across the pond have taken the proper path? Well things are not so clear cut, and that's what makes the financial markets such an interesting game.

Oil Heads Lower - $30 per Barrel - Believe Me Later

As the US Dollar continues to Strengthen - Oil is breaking one support level after another and seems to be heading for the $100 range. In my opinion anything above $30 is too damn high... but that's me.... I'm going to go out on a long limb here and say that once Oil falls off the radar screen and the lips of the financial pundits that $30 per barrel may be the new support level. It might take a year or more - but I will revisit this in the future(s).

Is Euro Over Sold? 800 Pip Drop To Continue?

After the FOMC announcement on August 5, I stated that if the Euro breaks below 1.5350 the US Dollar might be reclaiming it's footing and getting traction - I posted the Weekly chart of the Euro approaching support - The Euro is now testing 1.5200 - It's a new day!

2008-Aug-7-- Euro-USD-Weekly--Support-Broken

Euro Breaks Support - Weekly Chart Tells the Story (click to Enlarge) 

On July 15, 2008 the Euro traded at a all time high of approx 1.6030 - The current price today August 7, 2008 is approx 1.5230. My indicators on all time frames above 30 minutes show that the momentum to the downside has not completed yet. This 800 pip drop seems to continue

Dollar - Yen Poised in Consolidation

2008-Aug-7--USD-Yen-60-Minute-Consolidation

The Dollar has posted an impressive gain against the Yen running from 104 to almost 110 since July 15.

The 60 Minute Chart Above Shows a Nice Consolidation As the Dollar is Approaching Resistance on the Yen.

*** Your Invitation For Free Live Market Coverage and Analysis Webinars ***

Click Here to Register for my "1st on Forex" The Week Ahead Webinar  - Every Monday at 12 Noon EDT -

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

 

Posted by Jerry Furst at 11:49 PM | | Comments (2)

August 05, 2008

FOMC Holds Rates Steady - Dollar Holds

Possible Turning Point Getting More Confirmation

The consensus in the Live FOMC Webinar was that Ben Bernanke would keep rates steady. This was in line with the pundits consensus. The Fed Funds Futures Rates Shot up indicating that there are expectations that rates will be on hold for the time being. I posted on the blog a while back that there is the possibility that the FED may not raise rates until after the election in November. So much for a "independent" Federal reserve an just doing what is right.

High and Low Water Mark Spike

2008-Aug-5-Euro-1-Min-FOMC-Spike

Often a FOMC, GDP,  or NFP release will "spike the charts and create what I call "High and Low" water marks. The 1 minute chart above shows the high point at 1.5495 and the Low Mark at 1.5443- As of this typing the Euro was trading inside the range at 1.5457

 

Euro Still at Support

2008-Aug-5-- Euro-USD-Weekly-at-Support

The Weekly Chart Above Shows the Euro Heading down after making a "Double Top" on July 15th. The 32 SMA is prepared and ready to hold support at approximately 1.5390 a Break below 1.5350 could signal the US Dollar is reclaiming it's way back up.

Rate Increase is Needed Badly

The simpleton side of the debate screams that "you must be crazy to raise rates" with an economy like this. However,the person on the street has no access to the 2% rates that are reserved for the banks. No..... The dirty little secret is that Credit Card companies are charging 17% to regular clients - and heaven help you if you miss a payment - The rates can jump to 30% plus!

Mortgage Rates have nothing to do with Fed Rates - What would happen if...

The standard fixed rate mortgage today is approximately 7% - What would happen If.... the Fed raised a quarter point to 2.25%?  You would see the US Dollar rally - and the Black Crowes sitting on the fence that are waiting to buy houses - would fly off the fence and start to clear some of the inventory off the market in fear that rates would continue to go higher. So the Fed rate really has nothing to do with the trickle down effect that is needed to get things moving. Again - a rate increase will bring down the price of oil and help us all.

Australian Dollar Ready To Fall?

2008-Aug-5-Aussie-USD-Weekly

The Weekly Chart above shows the AUD-USD with the 50 SMA clearly holding support is ready to crack as rumors of the RBA needing to cut rates in the near future are getting louder.

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

 

 

Posted by Jerry Furst at 05:35 PM | | Comments (0)

July 25, 2008

Dollar Holds Steady Despite Dows Drop

Weak Economic Data - No Surprise

US Exiting Home Sales and Jobless Claims pushed the equity markets over a cliff on Thursday with the DOW Industrials closing down almost 300 points. But the Greenback held steady.

Friday Has More News Ahead

Durable Goods, Consumer Sentiment and New Home Sales will be news to watch coming out Friday morning.

Above and Below the US

2008-July-24-AUD-USD-Daily-Trend-Channel

The Daily Chart above shows Australian vs US Dollar shows a nice up trending channel with price at support.

 

Australia - Above and Below the US at Support

2008-July-24-AUD-CAD-Daily-Trend-Channel

Australia Coming Up Strong vs Canadian Dollar - For How Long?

 

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Posted by Jerry Furst at 10:24 PM | | Comments (1)

July 23, 2008

Dollar Continues Gains - Euro Drops vs Pound

As the US Dollar continues to gain ground, The Pound has seen some strength as well after the Bank of England released their meeting minutes earlier in the European session.

2008-July-23-Euro-Pound-Triangle-In-Play.Daily

Triangle In Play - Daily Chart of Euro vs Pound (click to enlarge)

 

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

 

Posted by Jerry Furst at 12:10 PM | | Comments (0)

July 22, 2008

Dollar Soars on FOMC Statement Suggesting Rate Hike

Oil Drops Despite Storm in the Gulf - Coincidence?

The Dollar made a huge rally against all the majors. Today's drop in Oil, despite a storm in the Gulf is proof to me that a strong US Dollar will bring down oil, gasoline, and hence inflation comes down.

Current Policy "Too Accommodative"

Voting member of the FOMC - Philly Fed President Plosser stated that, "I anticipate the reversal will need to be started sooner rather than later" when he was discussing the fact that current policy was "too accommodative". The fact that the low rates between the banks are no where to be seen by consumers should be an issue.

The Currencies

As of midday Tuesday

2008-July-22-Euro-drops-200-pips-5-min

The Euro tanked over 180 pips dropping form 1.5940 to 1.5760.

2008-July-22-GBP-30 Min-

The Pound gave up over 150 pips sinking from 2.0075 to 1.9900.

del.icio.us Tags: ,,